The Fed would like to see higher inflation. But wanting it more is not a policy. Other than “lower for longer” and more QE, it needs help from fiscal policy and from changes in global trends that are out of its control. This week saw further capitulation of inflation-sensitive assets, such as stocks and precious metals. Election jitters are growing and the market will have a hard time developing a strong trend in either direction before the results are known, which may not be on Nov 3rd.
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Sept 21, 2020
This week’s WIP provides charts and commentary on changes in central bank policies, the collapse of Treasury volatility, China’s dominance in EM indices, and much more. 1. Summary of Central Bank Crises Policies 2. Treasury Volatility Hits Record Low 3. New High for S&P PEG Ratio 4. …
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Sept 14, 2020
This week’s edition of the WIP raises questions on the “true” unemployment rate, highlights renewed Brexit risk in the U.K., puts the recent tech sell-off in context, and examines underlying trends in some components of the CPI basket…and more. Drop in Rents Keeps a Lid on CPI Alternative Unemployment Data Vanishing Hopes for More Fiscal …
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Sept. 8, 2020
Here is the latest Week in PIctures, covering the recent equity run-up to the highs and the subsequent hiccup. Last week saw the first wound inflicted in the lop-sided battle between valuations and liquidity. What’s next? 1. Mixed Picture in Unemployment Data 2. Reversal in Market Euphoria 3. Liquidity Everywhere 4. Equal Weight Indices Lag Market Cap Weight 5. S&P …
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Aug 31, 2020
With Jackson Hole out of the way, global markets can get back to business, pricing in higher inflation and bidding up risk assets. What will cause a crack in momentum and valuations? It won’t be the Fed.
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Aug. 24, 2020
Looking to discern between news and noise in the financial markets? The Week in Pictures might help. The latest edition contains charts and commentary on the following: 1. G20 FX Performance 2. S&P 500 Volatility Surface Steepens 3. Downside Equity Protection Remains Expensive 4. Lumber Prices Hit New High 5. Upside Surprises in Economic Data …
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Aug 17, 2020
This week’s edition includes charts and commentary on the following: 1. Household Debt Paradox 2. Canada Consumer Insolvencies Plummet 3. U.S. Banks Tighten Lending Standards 4. Retail Sector Makes a Comeback 5. Correction in Silver 6. Silver/Gold Volatility Ratio Explodes 7. Financial Sector Slow to Recover 8. Active Treasury Investors Not Net Long 9. Elevated …
(BLOG) Tweet, Tweet. Bye, Bye Market.
That was a Friday to remember. The day was supposed to be dominated by Jay Powell’s much-anticipated talk in Jackson Hole. Investors were looking for clues on the timing and direction of the next Fed policy move. Powell’s speech ended up satisfying markets, but not the President. Trump wants a 100 bp ease, and he wants it …
(BLOG) 30-Year Rates at 2%? Really?
Well, you can’t say the markets were quiet last week. While the stock market plunge of 3% on Monday may have dominated the news, the big story for bond and credit folks like us was the dramatic drop in rates, especially the 30-year sector. There was too much going on to fit everything into the …
(BLOG) Global Equities Summary
Volatility in the equity market has picked up again. Here is a brief summary of some of the major developments. It includes chaerts and commnentary on the following: Investment Factor Returns Factor Volatility Minimum Volatility Factor Low Vol vs. Min Vol: Performance Low Vol vs. Min Vol: Allocations Sector Returns Sector Valuations Global Equities Performance Global …
