1. Italian BTPs BTPs gained on the back of comments made by Finance Minister Giovanni Tria. He pledged fiscal prudence with respect to the Italian budget. Lower BTP yields, especially in the front end of the yield curve, take the stress of the banking community and European financial markets in general. 2. Crypto Meltdown The year-to-date change in …
1. EM FX The weakness in EM seems to be moving from idiosyncratic situations to contagion. The huge currency losses in some EM markets are not without historical precedent. Losses in 2008 and 2015 exceeded 15%. Bottom line: it feels bad, but it could easily get worse. Why it Matters Emerging markets had another rough day …
Precarious. That is the best word to describe the current situation in Iran. The intersection of geopolitics, economics and internal politics is forcing painful change. How did Iran get to this point and where is it headed? Click here to read the entire post on Forbes
Comments on inflation in Iran, commodity futures roll yields, short-term real rates and local currency EM bonds.
Comments on high yield volatility, EEM vs SPY, FX risk reversals and CP spreads.
Comments on: GDP Estimates, Agriculture Slump, US 10Y Term Premium, S&P Margins
10 interesting charts on the markets and economy: risk parity, Brazil ETF flows, trade wars, gold returns, equity valuations, IG credit fundamentals, high yield flows, UST sentiment and US economic activity indicators.
Includes comments on the real Fed Funds rate, investor sentiment, LATAM FX and small-cap stocks.
Comments on the Brazilian Real, Italian bond yields, high yield ETF flows and US swap spreads.
Recession Fears Yet another call for a recession, using the yield curve as a predictor. This time from Marc Seidner from PIMCO. He says there is a 70% chance the world economy enters a recession in the next 5 years. Why it matters. It doesn’t. First, making a recession call with a 5-year window …