The U.S. markets are closed today. The UN Security Council is not. It met this morning to discuss the latest provocations of North Korea and the recent test of a hydrogen bomb. The Security Council has met 10 times this year already to discuss the issue. Are we any closer to a tipping point and …
Continue reading “North Korea And The Markets: The Big Risk Is Trade”
It happens every year. The company golf outing. Golfers love it. Everybody else hates it. For some, it’s an opportunity to show off their talents outside of work. For others, it’s a chance to publicly embarrass themselves for an entire afternoon. Click to read the entire article on LinkedIn
Investing involves numbers. There is no getting around the need for basic math. Academics and derivatives nerds sometimes make the process unnecessarily complicated. Most investors don’t need such a high level of sophistication to invest successfully. Click to read the entire article on Forbes
The Bank for International Settlements, the BIS, just released a 47-page report on the impact of changing global demographics, and if their predictions are correct, it will mean higher interest rates and slower growth for most developed nations. The statistical study of how populations age by extrapolating fertility rates and life expectancy, known as demographics, …
Continue reading “Can Demographics Predict The Next Interest Rate Cycle?”
Malcolm Gladwell sent ripples through the parenting community in his book, Outliers, with his presentation of the “10,000 Rule”. His hypothesis proposed experts are made from out working and out practicing the competition, and true mastery of a skill would take 10,000 hours of dedication to the craft. Parents enrolled their children in all sorts …
Artificial intelligence. Big data. ETFs. Smart beta. Systematic trading. They will destroy hedge funds and the active management industry. That seems to be the prevailing view from the media. Indeed, these are very powerful forces causing change, but there is a big difference between an industry in transformation and an industry about to die. Click …
The calls for a correction in US stock valuations seem to grow louder by the day. Many bears point to the historically elevated price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 to jump to the conclusion that stock prices must go down, and investors should brace for negative future returns for the broad equity market. Fortunately, the …
Continue reading “A Correction In Equity Valuations Does Not Have To Be Painful”
Garth is a guest on the Behind The Markets Podcast hosted by Jeremy Schwartz to discuss his new book. Click here to listen to the episode.
Forecasting GDP in not easy. It involves multiple variables and inputs, many of which are subject to revision. If anybody could do it well, you would think it would be the Fed, right? They have an army of staffers who spend their entire working lives looking at every piece of economic data, trying to attach …
Continue reading “Did The Fed Make A Mistake When It Raised Rates?”
It has happened to us all. We invest money with the best intentions only to discover, in hindsight, we made a huge mistake. Sometimes the mistake is legitimate- our analysis was faulty, we let our emotions get the better of us, or we just had bad luck in timing. It stings. But when we lose …
Continue reading “Too Good To Be True? How To Spot Investment Fraud”
A Featured Columnist for:
Media Interviews & Quotes include:
