The Fed would like to see higher inflation. But wanting it more is not a policy. Other than “lower for longer” and more QE, it needs help from fiscal policy and from changes in global trends that are out of its control. This week saw further capitulation of inflation-sensitive assets, such as stocks and precious metals. Election jitters are growing and the market will have a hard time developing a strong trend in either direction before the results are known, which may not be on Nov 3rd.
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Sept 21, 2020
This week’s WIP provides charts and commentary on changes in central bank policies, the collapse of Treasury volatility, China’s dominance in EM indices, and much more. 1. Summary of Central Bank Crises Policies 2. Treasury Volatility Hits Record Low 3. New High for S&P PEG Ratio 4. …
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Sept 14, 2020
This week’s edition of the WIP raises questions on the “true” unemployment rate, highlights renewed Brexit risk in the U.K., puts the recent tech sell-off in context, and examines underlying trends in some components of the CPI basket…and more. Drop in Rents Keeps a Lid on CPI Alternative Unemployment Data Vanishing Hopes for More Fiscal …
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Sept. 8, 2020
Here is the latest Week in PIctures, covering the recent equity run-up to the highs and the subsequent hiccup. Last week saw the first wound inflicted in the lop-sided battle between valuations and liquidity. What’s next? 1. Mixed Picture in Unemployment Data 2. Reversal in Market Euphoria 3. Liquidity Everywhere 4. Equal Weight Indices Lag Market Cap Weight 5. S&P …
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Aug 31, 2020
With Jackson Hole out of the way, global markets can get back to business, pricing in higher inflation and bidding up risk assets. What will cause a crack in momentum and valuations? It won’t be the Fed.
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Aug. 24, 2020
Looking to discern between news and noise in the financial markets? The Week in Pictures might help. The latest edition contains charts and commentary on the following: 1. G20 FX Performance 2. S&P 500 Volatility Surface Steepens 3. Downside Equity Protection Remains Expensive 4. Lumber Prices Hit New High 5. Upside Surprises in Economic Data …
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Aug 17, 2020
This week’s edition includes charts and commentary on the following: 1. Household Debt Paradox 2. Canada Consumer Insolvencies Plummet 3. U.S. Banks Tighten Lending Standards 4. Retail Sector Makes a Comeback 5. Correction in Silver 6. Silver/Gold Volatility Ratio Explodes 7. Financial Sector Slow to Recover 8. Active Treasury Investors Not Net Long 9. Elevated …
(FORBES) Beware Of The Hidden Costs In Commodity Investing
Over the last few months, gold has made a new all-time high, oil appears to have bottomed, and a restart of the global economy could lead to a more robust demand for industrial metals like copper. Commodities often do better when investors experience or anticipate rising inflation. It may indeed be time to own commodities, …
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(LinkedIn) The Week in Pictures: Macro Market Update
This week’s post touches on renewed equity market volatility, sky-high valuations, the retail trading frenzy, record-low mortgage rates, the coming wave of US Treasury supply, disruptions in the gold market, and more. Click here to read the entire post on LinkedIn.
(LinkedIn) Macro Musings: Global Markets Defy Gravity
If you had a crystal ball at the start of the year, it might not have helped in investment decisions. If you received advanced notice that the first half of 2020 would include a global pandemic, 40 million unemployed Americans, a drop in corporate earnings of more than 30%, a wave of corporate bankruptcies and …
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