House Democrats proposed sweeping changes to retirement accounts on Monday as part of a restructuring of the tax code designed to target the wealthy. Average investors are caught in the crosshairs.
(FORBES) Excess Cash In Your Portfolio Is An Option, But What Is That Option Worth?
Rich valuations, desire for liquidity, and fear of volatility are all reasons why investors sometimes want dry powder. But how can we quantify the cost of sitting on excess cash?
(FORBES) No End In Sight For The COVID-Led Global Supply Chain Disruption
Problems persist in the global supply chain, and they may get worse before they get better.
(FORBES) Did The Fed Policy Shift Destroy The Reflation Trade?
Last week, the Fed surprised the market with a shift in policy, vowing to act early to arrest inflation. Naturally, this hurt trades based on the reflation narrative. Are they still worth holding, or is it time to bail? I cover some of the issues in my latest article on Forbes. Click here to read …
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(FORBES) (Published Works) The Treasury Bond Market Is Getting Destroyed. Is It Time To Buy?
Treasury bond yields surged to a new post-pandemic high last week, extending the bear market that began in August of last year. When will it end? Please click here to read the entire article on Forbes.
(FORBES) Bond Market Crowded Trades May Lead To Post-Election Surprise Move
Speculative shorts in bond futures are at extreme levels. The crowd may be right, but if there is not a Democratic sweep in the election, the short covering could be equally extreme. Click here to read the entire article on Forbes.
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Oct 5, 2020
As we get closer to the election, sector performance and volatility divergence in the equity and credit markets is growing. The post-election macro outlook is likely to be dominated by sector and asset class rotation rather than out-sized moves at the broad index level.
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Sep 28, 2020
The Fed would like to see higher inflation. But wanting it more is not a policy. Other than “lower for longer” and more QE, it needs help from fiscal policy and from changes in global trends that are out of its control. This week saw further capitulation of inflation-sensitive assets, such as stocks and precious metals. Election jitters are growing and the market will have a hard time developing a strong trend in either direction before the results are known, which may not be on Nov 3rd.
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Sept 21, 2020
This week’s WIP provides charts and commentary on changes in central bank policies, the collapse of Treasury volatility, China’s dominance in EM indices, and much more. 1. Summary of Central Bank Crises Policies 2. Treasury Volatility Hits Record Low 3. New High for S&P PEG Ratio 4. …
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Sept 14, 2020
This week’s edition of the WIP raises questions on the “true” unemployment rate, highlights renewed Brexit risk in the U.K., puts the recent tech sell-off in context, and examines underlying trends in some components of the CPI basket…and more. Drop in Rents Keeps a Lid on CPI Alternative Unemployment Data Vanishing Hopes for More Fiscal …
