It’s almost as though the December stock market massacre never happened. The S&P 500 is up over 9% year-to-date, and above the level before the last fateful rate hike by the Fed. So which move was the anomaly? The downward move in December or the rebound in January? Certain developments suggest the former. Click here …
Continue reading “Advice From Aaron Burr to Chairman Powell: Talk Less, Smile More”
If you won the $1.6 billion Mega Millions lottery, how would you invest your instant wealth? Click here to read the entire article on Forbes
Volatility in the equity market has picked up again. Here is a brief summary of some of the major developments. It includes chaerts and commnentary on the following: Investment Factor Returns Factor Volatility Minimum Volatility Factor Low Vol vs. Min Vol: Performance Low Vol vs. Min Vol: Allocations Sector Returns Sector Valuations Global Equities Performance Global …
The performance of global financial markets is diverging. What does this tell us about the health of the global economy? Is the second longest economic expansion in the last 150 years about to come to an end? Click here to read the entire article on Forbes
1. Italian BTPs BTPs gained on the back of comments made by Finance Minister Giovanni Tria. He pledged fiscal prudence with respect to the Italian budget. Lower BTP yields, especially in the front end of the yield curve, take the stress of the banking community and European financial markets in general. 2. Crypto Meltdown The year-to-date change in …
1. EM FX The weakness in EM seems to be moving from idiosyncratic situations to contagion. The huge currency losses in some EM markets are not without historical precedent. Losses in 2008 and 2015 exceeded 15%. Bottom line: it feels bad, but it could easily get worse. Why it Matters Emerging markets had another rough day …
Precarious. That is the best word to describe the current situation in Iran. The intersection of geopolitics, economics and internal politics is forcing painful change. How did Iran get to this point and where is it headed? Click here to read the entire post on Forbes
Comments on inflation in Iran, commodity futures roll yields, short-term real rates and local currency EM bonds.
Comments on high yield volatility, EEM vs SPY, FX risk reversals and CP spreads.
Comments on: GDP Estimates, Agriculture Slump, US 10Y Term Premium, S&P Margins
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