Treasury bond yields surged to a new post-pandemic high last week, extending the bear market that began in August of last year. When will it end? Please click here to read the entire article on Forbes.
(FORBES) Bond Market Crowded Trades May Lead To Post-Election Surprise Move
Speculative shorts in bond futures are at extreme levels. The crowd may be right, but if there is not a Democratic sweep in the election, the short covering could be equally extreme. Click here to read the entire article on Forbes.
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Oct 5, 2020
As we get closer to the election, sector performance and volatility divergence in the equity and credit markets is growing. The post-election macro outlook is likely to be dominated by sector and asset class rotation rather than out-sized moves at the broad index level.
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Sep 28, 2020
The Fed would like to see higher inflation. But wanting it more is not a policy. Other than “lower for longer” and more QE, it needs help from fiscal policy and from changes in global trends that are out of its control. This week saw further capitulation of inflation-sensitive assets, such as stocks and precious metals. Election jitters are growing and the market will have a hard time developing a strong trend in either direction before the results are known, which may not be on Nov 3rd.
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Sept 21, 2020
This week’s WIP provides charts and commentary on changes in central bank policies, the collapse of Treasury volatility, China’s dominance in EM indices, and much more. 1. Summary of Central Bank Crises Policies 2. Treasury Volatility Hits Record Low 3. New High for S&P PEG Ratio 4. …
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Sept 14, 2020
This week’s edition of the WIP raises questions on the “true” unemployment rate, highlights renewed Brexit risk in the U.K., puts the recent tech sell-off in context, and examines underlying trends in some components of the CPI basket…and more. Drop in Rents Keeps a Lid on CPI Alternative Unemployment Data Vanishing Hopes for More Fiscal …
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Sept. 8, 2020
Here is the latest Week in PIctures, covering the recent equity run-up to the highs and the subsequent hiccup. Last week saw the first wound inflicted in the lop-sided battle between valuations and liquidity. What’s next? 1. Mixed Picture in Unemployment Data 2. Reversal in Market Euphoria 3. Liquidity Everywhere 4. Equal Weight Indices Lag Market Cap Weight 5. S&P …
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Aug 31, 2020
With Jackson Hole out of the way, global markets can get back to business, pricing in higher inflation and bidding up risk assets. What will cause a crack in momentum and valuations? It won’t be the Fed.
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Aug. 24, 2020
Looking to discern between news and noise in the financial markets? The Week in Pictures might help. The latest edition contains charts and commentary on the following: 1. G20 FX Performance 2. S&P 500 Volatility Surface Steepens 3. Downside Equity Protection Remains Expensive 4. Lumber Prices Hit New High 5. Upside Surprises in Economic Data …
(BLOG) Week in Pictures: Aug 17, 2020
This week’s edition includes charts and commentary on the following: 1. Household Debt Paradox 2. Canada Consumer Insolvencies Plummet 3. U.S. Banks Tighten Lending Standards 4. Retail Sector Makes a Comeback 5. Correction in Silver 6. Silver/Gold Volatility Ratio Explodes 7. Financial Sector Slow to Recover 8. Active Treasury Investors Not Net Long 9. Elevated …
