1. EM FX The weakness in EM seems to be moving from idiosyncratic situations to contagion. The huge currency losses in some EM markets are not without historical precedent. Losses in 2008 and 2015 exceeded 15%. Bottom line: it feels bad, but it could easily get worse. Why it Matters Emerging markets had another rough day …
(FORBES) Iran: Stuck Between A Political Rock And An Economic Hard Place
Precarious. That is the best word to describe the current situation in Iran. The intersection of geopolitics, economics and internal politics is forcing painful change. How did Iran get to this point and where is it headed? Click here to read the entire post on Forbes
(BLOG) Morning Brief- Thursday, Aug 30
Comments on inflation in Iran, commodity futures roll yields, short-term real rates and local currency EM bonds.
(BLOG) Morning Brief- Wednesday, Aug 29
Comments on high yield volatility, EEM vs SPY, FX risk reversals and CP spreads.
(BLOG) Morning Brief- Tuesday, Aug 28
Comments on: GDP Estimates, Agriculture Slump, US 10Y Term Premium, S&P Margins
(BLOG) Macro Matters: 10 Charts That Explain the Current State of the Markets
10 interesting charts on the markets and economy: risk parity, Brazil ETF flows, trade wars, gold returns, equity valuations, IG credit fundamentals, high yield flows, UST sentiment and US economic activity indicators.
(BLOG) Morning Brief: Aug 24, 2018
Includes comments on the real Fed Funds rate, investor sentiment, LATAM FX and small-cap stocks.
(BLOG) Morning Brief: August 23rd, 2018
Comments on the Brazilian Real, Italian bond yields, high yield ETF flows and US swap spreads.
(BLOG) Morning Brief: Aug 22nd, 2018
Recession Fears Yet another call for a recession, using the yield curve as a predictor. This time from Marc Seidner from PIMCO. He says there is a 70% chance the world economy enters a recession in the next 5 years. Why it matters. It doesn’t. First, making a recession call with a 5-year window …
(FORBES) ETFs Won’t Cause The Next Wave Of Panic Selling In The Bond Market
Don’t believe it when people say ETFs will be responsible for the next wave of panic selling in the bond market. There is no evidence to support such a claim. In fact, they will help market liquidity, not hurt. Click here to read the entire article on Forbes
